AutoADAM ======== Automatic ADAM model selection with distribution and ARIMA order selection. .. currentmodule:: smooth .. autoclass:: AutoADAM :members: fit, predict, rstandard, rstudent, outlierdummy Overview -------- ``AutoADAM`` extends :class:`ADAM` with automatic selection of: 1. **Distribution** — tests multiple error distributions and selects by IC 2. **ARIMA orders** — when ``arima_select=True`` (default), selects AR/I/MA orders 3. **Outlier detection** — optionally detects and includes outlier dummies Example Usage ------------- Distribution selection: .. code-block:: python from smooth import AutoADAM model = AutoADAM(model="ZZZ", distribution=["dnorm", "dlaplace", "ds"]) model.fit(y) print(model) With ARIMA order selection: .. code-block:: python model = AutoADAM(model="ZZZ", lags=[1, 12], ar_order=[3, 1], i_order=[2, 1], ma_order=[3, 1]) model.fit(y) fc = model.predict(h=24) With outlier detection: .. code-block:: python model = AutoADAM(model="ZZZ", lags=[1, 12], outliers="use", level=0.99) model.fit(y) Diagnostics after fitting: .. code-block:: python # Standardised residuals std_res = model.rstandard() # Studentised residuals stud_res = model.rstudent() # Outlier dummy variables (if outliers detected) dummies = model.outlierdummy() See Also -------- - :class:`ADAM` — Base ADAM class - :class:`AutoMSARIMA` — Automatic pure-ARIMA selection - :doc:`msdecompose` — Multiple seasonal decomposition