Open Forecasting

Menu

Skip to content
  • Home
  • Events
    • Future events
    • Past events
  • smooth in R
    • About adam() function
    • About es() function
    • Common parameters
    • Methods for the smooth functions in R
  • greybox in R
  • Theory
    • Forecast evaluation
  • ADAM
  • SBA
  • Short posts
  • About
  • Русский

changepoint

Online Detection of Forecast Model Inadequacies Using Forecast Errors

2025-06-112025-06-11 Leave a comment
Figure 6 from the paper, showing the proportion of GRP A&E admissions, the forecast errors and two detectors.

There’s a large and fascinating area in time series analysis called “changepoint detection”. I hadn’t worked in this area before, but thanks to Rebecca Killick and Thomas Grundy, I contributed to the paper “Online Detection of Forecast Model Inadequacies Using Forecast Errors“, which has just been published in the Journal of Time Series Analysis. DISCLAIMER: […]

  • Русский

Events

  • No events planned at the moment

Blog

  • Online Detection of Forecast Model Inadequacies Using Forecast Errors
  • SBC is not for you!
  • Six questions for a forecaster-consultant
  • Fundamental Flaw of the Box-Jenkins Methodology
  • 5th IMA and OR Society Conference

Tags

ADAM AI and ML analytics ARIMA bla-bla-bla CES changepoint combinations complex variables conferences consultancy English error measures estimators ETS extrapolation methods greybox GUM hierarchies history Information criteria intermittent demand ISF ISMS LaTeX Marketing stuff multivariate models OR papers personal PhD presentations programming R regression regular demand Seasonality SMA smooth statistics stories theory time series uncertainty useR!

Comments

  • Ivan Svetunkov on Who is “Forecasting academia”?
  • Mohamed Merabtine on Who is “Forecasting academia”?
  • Ivan Svetunkov on Why Naive is not a good benchmark for intermittent demand
  • Indar Kusmadi on Why Naive is not a good benchmark for intermittent demand
  • Indar Kusmadi on John E. Boylan

RSS RBloggers feed

  • Spatial machine learning with mlr3 2025-06-11
  • Exceptionally, and on a more personal note (otherwise I may get buried alive)… 2025-06-10
  • Investigating running R on RISC-V thanks to r-base on Ubuntu 2025-06-10
  • Open repo of ecological data for use in teaching 2025-06-10
  • Why JR’s Training is Different 2025-06-09

Categories

Blog Authors

Ivan Svetunkov
  • Home
  • Future events
  • Past events
  • Using R
  • About
Рейтинг@Mail.ru