This time, at ISF2026, I presented the paper that I have worked on together with Juan Ramon Trapero and Diego Pedregal. The idea of the paper is to introduce a taxonomy of the models in the Multiple Sources of Error (MSOE) framework. In the Single Source of Errors one, there is ETS, in the MSOE, … Read more
This year, I couldn’t attend the International Symposium on Forecasting (organised by the International Institute of Forecasters), which I usually do, so instead I went to Gran Canaria for the International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting (aka ITISE). The location was fantastic, and I enjoyed several talks. I was also glad to catch up … Read more
It was a pleasure to attend the 5th IMA and OR Society Conference at Aston University, Birmingham, and to present my research with Anna Sroginis on model-based demand classification. A great crowd of people from universities across the UK, along with several esteemed international colleagues. The event was very well organised – thanks to Aris … Read more
I presented our current work with Anna Sroginis during my visit of IÉSEG School of Management, Lille, France last week. It was great to see my colleague and friend Sarah Van der Auweraer, and I enjoyed the discussion we had with people in her group related to forecasting and intermittent demand. You can see details … Read more
On 1st July, I presented my ongoing work on time series bootstrap and its impact on prediction intervals at ISF2024 in Dijon, France. Abstract: Bootstrap is extensively used in statistics and machine learning for cross-sectional data to account for uncertainty about the data, model form, and parameter estimates. However, conventional methods may not be suitable … Read more
On 15th December 2023, I presented in a CMAF Friday Forecasting Talks webinar on the topic of “Why you should care about exponential smoothing”. The motivation was to give a fresh view on the good old model and show how it started, how it evolved over time and how it can be improved. With this … Read more
This time ISF took place in Oxford. I acted as a programme chair of the event and was quite busy with schedule and some other minor organisational things, but I still found time to present something new. Specifically, I talked about one specific part of ADAM, the part implementing ETS+ARIMA. The idea is that the … Read more
Today I have made a presentation on the topic of “Multi-step Estimators and Shrinkage Effect in Time Series Models” for Center for Econometrics and Business Analytics (CEBA) of St.Petersburg State University. This presentation was based on the paper with the similar name written by Ivan Svetunkov, Nikolaos Kourentzes and Rebecca Killick. In the presentation, I … Read more
Salut mes amis! Today I’ve presented my smooth package at the useR!2019 conference in Toulouse, France. This is a nice conference, focused on specific solutions to specific problems. Here, people tend to present functions from their packages (not underlying models, like, for example, at ISF). On one hand, this has its own limitations, but on … Read more
The ISF2019 took place in Thessaloniki, Greece. This time I presented a spin-off of my research on intermittent demand in retail, entitled as “What about those sweet melons? Using mixture models for demand forecasting in retail”. The idea is quite trivial and simple: use mixture distribution regressions (e.g. logistic and log-normal distributions) in order to … Read more