This year I have presented an extension of the research from ISF2017, called “Forecasting intermittent data with complex patterns”. This time we developed the model with “logistic probability”, which allows capturing complex patterns in demand occurrence part of the data. I also tried making the presentation more entertaining and easier to understand by a wider audience. But don’t worry, I did not abandon formulae, this was still a proper math-based presentation.
Here are the slides from the presentation. My colleagues and I are working on a paper for this. But this is related to the paper John and I submitted to IJF.
An example of time series discussed in the presentation
There is also now a video of my presentation: