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Chapter 17 Scale model for ADAM

Up until this chapter, we have focused our discussion on modelling the location of a distribution (e.g. conditional mean, point forecasts), neglecting the fact that in some situations, the variance of a model might exhibit some time-varying patterns. In statistics, the effect of a non-constant variance is called “heteroscedasticity” (see discussion in Section 14.6). It implies that the variance of the residuals of a model changes either over time or under influence of some variables. In some cases, in order to capture this effect, we might use the multiplicative model – it takes care of heteroscedasticity caused by changing the level of data if the variance is proportional to its value. But there might be some situations where variance changes due to some external factors, not necessarily available to the analyst. In this situation, it should be captured separately using a different model. Hereafter the original ADAM that is used for producing of conditional mean will be called the location model, while the model for the variance will be called the scale model.

In this chapter, we discuss the scale model for ADAM ETS/ARIMA/Regression, the model that allows capturing time-varying variance and using it for forecasting. We discuss how this model is formulated, how it can be estimated, and then move to the discussion of its relation to such models as ARCH and GARCH. This chapter is inspired by the GAMLSS, which models the scale of distribution using functions of explanatory variables. We build upon that by introducing the dynamic element.