Chapter 2 Forecasts evaluation

As discussed in Section 1.1, forecasts should serve a specific purpose. They should not be made “just because” but to help make decisions. The decision then dictates the kind of forecast that should be made – its form and its time horizon(s). It also dictates how the forecast should be evaluated – a forecast only being as good as the quality of the decisions it enables.

When you understand how your system works and what sort of forecasts you should produce, you can start an evaluation process, measuring the performance of different forecasting models/methods and selecting the most appropriate for your data. There are various ways to measure and compare their performance.

This chapter discusses the most common approaches, focusing on evaluating point forecasts, then moving towards prediction intervals and quantile forecasts. After that, we discuss how to choose the appropriate error measure and, finally, ensure that the model performs consistently on the available data via rolling origin evaluation and statistical tests.