It was a pleasure to attend the 5th IMA and OR Society Conference at Aston University, Birmingham, and to present my research with Anna Sroginis on model-based demand classification. A great crowd of people from universities across the UK, along with several esteemed international colleagues. The event was very well organised – thanks to Aris […]
On 1st July, I presented my ongoing work on time series bootstrap and its impact on prediction intervals at ISF2024 in Dijon, France. Abstract: Bootstrap is extensively used in statistics and machine learning for cross-sectional data to account for uncertainty about the data, model form, and parameter estimates. However, conventional methods may not be suitable […]
This time ISF took place in Oxford. I acted as a programme chair of the event and was quite busy with schedule and some other minor organisational things, but I still found time to present something new. Specifically, I talked about one specific part of ADAM, the part implementing ETS+ARIMA. The idea is that the […]
This year International Symposium on Forecasting was held online, although Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting of Lancaster University had their own hub, where we would come and watch presentations together and even present to the others. I presented on the topic of Multiplicative ETS, based on this chapter of the ADAM textbook and on […]
The ISF2019 took place in Thessaloniki, Greece. This time I presented a spin-off of my research on intermittent demand in retail, entitled as “What about those sweet melons? Using mixture models for demand forecasting in retail”. The idea is quite trivial and simple: use mixture distribution regressions (e.g. logistic and log-normal distributions) in order to […]
I was recently invited to attend the SMUG2019 conference (SMoothie Users Group), organised by Demand Works company in New York. They asked me to present two topics: State space ARIMA for Supply Chain Forecasting, based on which I have developed a module for Smoothie a couple of years ago, Artificial Intelligence in Business, one of […]
I usually prepare these types of posts at the end of the previous year, but this time I failed to do that earlier. As a result many deadlines for the abstract submissions have already passed. However, there are still several events that you can register for and attend in 2019: 5th April, CMAF Workshop on […]
Robert Fildes asked me to prepare a review of exponential smoothing for OR60. I thought that it would be boring just to look in the past, so I decided to do past + present + future, adding a model that Nikos and I have started working on some time ago (GUM – Generalised Univariate Model). […]
This year I have presented an extension of the research from ISF2017, called “Forecasting intermittent data with complex patterns”. This time we developed the model with “logistic probability”, which allows capturing complex patterns in demand occurrence part of the data. I also tried making the presentation more entertaining and easier to understand by a wider […]
Next year I’m going to attend several forecasting-related conferences. I’ve decided to make a list in order not to forget what to attend. Here it is: International Symposium on Forecasting, 17-20 June, 2018, Boulder, Colorado, USA. This is the key event in forecasting, which any self-respecting forecaster should not miss. I don’t know what to […]