Error Measures Flow Chart

In order to help master students of Lancaster University Managemen Science department, I have developed a flow chart, that acts as a basic guide on what error measures to use in different circumstances. This is not a complete and far from perfect flow chart, and it assumes that the decision maker knows what intermittent demand […]

Forecasting method vs forecasting model: what’s difference?

If you work in the field of statistics, analytics, data science or forecasting, then you probably have already noticed that some of the instruments that are used in your field are called “methods”, while the others are called “models”. The issue here is that the people, using these terms, usually know the distinction between them, […]

True model

In the modern statistical literature there is a notion of “true model”, by which people usually mean some abstract mathematical model, presumably lying in the core of observed process. Roughly saying, it is implied that data we have has been generated by some big guy with a white beard sitting in mathematical clouds using some […]