I usually prepare these types of posts at the end of the previous year, but this time I failed to do that earlier. As a result many deadlines for the abstract submissions have already passed. However, there are still several events that you can register for and attend in 2019: 5th April, CMAF Workshop on … Read more
Robert Fildes asked me to prepare a review of exponential smoothing for OR60. I thought that it would be boring just to look in the past, so I decided to do past + present + future, adding a model that Nikos and I have started working on some time ago (GUM – Generalised Univariate Model). … Read more
This year I have presented an extension of the research from ISF2017, called “Forecasting intermittent data with complex patterns”. This time we developed the model with “logistic probability”, which allows capturing complex patterns in demand occurrence part of the data. I also tried making the presentation more entertaining and easier to understand by a wider … Read more
This year I participated the Informs Society for Marketing Science Conference in Philadelphia. I presented a research that I work on together with Victoria Grigorieva, Yana Salihova and Florian Dost. This is an ongoing research, and we are trying to capture the dynamics of ecosystems on the market of mobile devices in order to see, … Read more
Next year I’m going to attend several forecasting-related conferences. I’ve decided to make a list in order not to forget what to attend. Here it is: International Symposium on Forecasting, 17-20 June, 2018, Boulder, Colorado, USA. This is the key event in forecasting, which any self-respecting forecaster should not miss. I don’t know what to … Read more
In Cairns, Australia, I have presented the topic from Bath — One for all: forecasting intermittent and non-intermittent demand using one model. It was well received although one of the professors did not understand the main point of the presentation and I could not explain him, why this is important and why the proposed approach … Read more
Last week I have visited Bath University, where Dr. Fotios Petropoulos works. He organised a scientific seminar, where I could present my recent research on topic “One for all: forecasting intermittent and non-intermittent demand using one model“. The presentation was well received and rose several interesting questions from the participants of the seminar, which will … Read more
An IIF workshop “Supply Chain Forecasting for Operations” took place at Lancaster University on 28th and 29th of June. I have given a presentation on a topic that John Boylan and I are currently working on. We suggest a universal statistical model, that allows uniting standard methods of forecasting (for example, for fast moving products) … Read more
This time I presented a talk on Trace Forecast Likelihood, based on the presentation given at Ghent and in Higher School of Economics earlier this year. Unfortunately, I was in the session of statisticians, who discussed hypothesis testing and weren’t aware of the area of my presentation. As a result, this presentation passed without any … Read more
This Wednesday Stephan Kolassa (Senior Research Expert at SAP) has visited Lancaster Centre for Forecasting. He gave a couple of very interesting talks and attended the presentation of PhD topics by Ivan Svetunkov, Yves Sagaert and Oliver Schaer (organised by Nikolaos Kourentzes). My topic was “Trace Forecast Likelihood”, some parts of which I have presented … Read more