Simple Methods

Another important Naïve method

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Seasonal Naive depiction

There is another forecasting method that is extremely popular, hard to beat, and has no parameters to estimate. It also has “Naïve” in its name. Do you know what I’m talking about? It is called “Seasonal Naïve”. While the simple Naïve copies the last observed actual into the future as a forecast, the seasonal one … Read more

Why Naïve is popular and important

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How Naive works

There is one forecasting method that appears more often than any other in competitions and evaluations. An experienced forecaster will always use it as a benchmark. This method is called “Naïve”, and here is why it is popular and important. Naïve is a very simple forecasting method: the forecast equals to the last observed value. … Read more