Archives Theory of forecasting - Page 6 of 6

Naughty APEs and the quest for the holy grail

2024-04-042017-07-29 by Ivan Svetunkov

Today I want to tell you a story of naughty APEs and the quest for the holy grail in forecasting. The topic has already been known for a while in academia, but is widely ignored by practitioners. APE stands for Absolute Percentage Error and is one of the simplest error measures, which is supposed to … Read more

True model

2018-01-062016-06-25 by Ivan Svetunkov

In the modern statistical literature there is a notion of “true model”, by which people usually mean some abstract mathematical model, presumably lying in the core of observed process. Roughly saying, it is implied that data we have has been generated by some big guy with a white beard sitting in mathematical clouds using some … Read more