Here is one small, unexpected piece of news: I now have my first package on PyPI! It’s called fcompdata, and let me tell you a little bit about it. When I test my functions in R, I usually use the M1, M3, and tourism competition datasets because they are diverse enough, containing seasonal, non-seasonal, trended, […]
There’s a large and fascinating area in time series analysis called “changepoint detection”. I hadn’t worked in this area before, but thanks to Rebecca Killick and Thomas Grundy, I contributed to the paper “Online Detection of Forecast Model Inadequacies Using Forecast Errors“, which has just been published in the Journal of Time Series Analysis. DISCLAIMER: […]
Is there such thing as “Time series forecasting”? I personally don’t like this term and think that we should use a different one. Which one? Come with me in this post to find out. I understand why people use the term “Time series forecasting” – they want to show the type of data they work […]
Not every pattern that appears seasonal is genuinely seasonal. This means you don’t always require a seasonal model when you see repetitive patterns with fixed periodicity. How come? First things first, in forecasting, the term “seasonality” refers to any natural pattern repeating with some periodicity. For example, if you work in a hospital with A&E […]